US Ecommerce Forecast 2024

Retail Sales Will Chart a Modest and Steady Course Through Ongoing Headwinds

Report by Sky Canaves  |  Aug 23, 2024

Ecommerce Forecasts 2024

Our latest data, insights, and implications for 7 markets: US, Canada, Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, UK, Latin America, and Worldwide

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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
The pace of US retail sales growth is picking up gradually
Ecommerce will grow steadily—and more than four times faster than physical retail
Gen Z will make its presence felt as digital shoppers and buyers
Amazon won’t cede its dominance of US ecommerce anytime soon, despite increased competition
A closer look at retail and ecommerce trends
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
US retail and ecommerce sales will maintain stable growth over the next five years, with pockets of opportunity emerging from new digital consumers and mobile-first online shopping trends.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Retail Sales
Mcommerce
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
The pace of US retail sales growth is picking up gradually
Ecommerce will grow steadily—and more than four times faster than physical retail
Gen Z will make its presence felt as digital shoppers and buyers
Amazon won’t cede its dominance of US ecommerce anytime soon, despite increased competition
A closer look at retail and ecommerce trends
Sources
Media Gallery

US retail sales will grow at a modest and stable pace through 2028, with ecommerce progressing more than four times faster than in-store sales. Major retailers are returning to online sales growth after a tumultuous period of post-pandemic adjustment. Gen Z consumers and product category trends present key opportunities for growth in digital commerce.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for US retail and ecommerce sales over the next five years?

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2022-2028 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)
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Key Stat: US ecommerce sales will grow by 8.7% in 2024 to nearly $1.2 trillion, comprising 16.2% of total retail sales.

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. The pace of US retail sales growth is picking up gradually
  3. Ecommerce will grow steadily—and more than four times faster than physical retail
  1. Gen Z will make its presence felt as digital shoppers and buyers
  2. Amazon won’t cede its dominance of US ecommerce anytime soon, despite increased competition
  3. A closer look at retail and ecommerce trends
  1. Sources
  2. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

US Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2022-2028 (trillions, % change, and % of total retail sales)Retail Ecommerce* vs. Physical Retail** vs. Total Retail Sales Growth, 2022-2028 (% change)
Mcommerce Will Make Up More Than Half of US Online Sales in 2028 (billions of US ecommerce sales, by device, 2024-2028)Gen Z Is the Predominant Source of Digital Buyer Growth (millions of US digital buyers, by generation, 2024 & 2028)
US Retail Ecommerce Metrics, 2022-2028Amazon Towers Above the Online Competition With Over 40% of US Ecommerce Sales (billions in US retail ecommerce sales, by retailer, 2024)
Amazon Is Gaining Category Share With Faster Growth in the Largest Ecommerce Segments (% change YoY in US Amazon retail ecommerce sales vs. total retail ecommerce sales, by category, 2024 )Few Retailers Will Grow Their Online Sales Faster Than Amazon Through 2026 (% change in US retail ecommerce sales, by retailer, 2024-2026)
Amazon Towers Over the Marketplace Competition, While Temu Is Growing Fastest (billions of US ecommerce sales of select retail marketplace platforms and % change, 2024 & 2025)Trends Are Shifting for 2 Key Ecommerce Growth Categories While Fashion Holds Steady (% change in US retail ecommerce sales, by category, 2023-2028)
The Major Categories' Share of Total US Ecommerce Sales Won't Shift Much Through 2028 (% of total US retail ecommerce sales, by category, 2024 & 2028)Online Sales of Mature Ecommerce Categories Will Continue to Expand (US retail ecommerce sales penetration, by category, 2024 & 2028)

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Sky Canaves

Contributors

Ethan Cramer-Flood
Suzy Davidkhanian
VP, Content
Donte Gibson
Senior Chart Editor
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Louie-Lam
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Malloy
Director, Reports Editor
Emma Noyes
Amy Rotondo
Director, US Research
Sakina Thanawala
Matt Torpey
Senior Chart Data Specialist